A new simple score to predict mortality of COVID-19 in the emergency department

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is one of the greatest challenges facing global medical research. The availability of a clinical score that can predict mortality risk at the time of diagnosis could be a valuable tool in the hands of emergency physicians to make clinical decisions. Our study is designed to evaluate clinical and laboratory endpoints associated with mortality and to determine a prognostic score based on clinical and laboratory variables. We retrospectively enrolled 367 patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) in our emergency department (ED). We evaluated their mortality 60 days after diagnosis. Symptoms, demographic data, concomitant diseases, and various laboratory parameters were obtained from all patients. Variables related to death were assessed using multiple logistic regression analysis. From these, we created a score called ANCOC (Age, blood urea Nitrogen, C-reactive protein, Oxygen saturation, Comorbidities). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated for the ANCOC and for the 4C score. The 4C score has been described and validated in previous works and can predict mortality in COVID-19 patients. We compared the 2 scores and analysed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for 60-day mortality for the ANCOC score. The ANCOC and 4C scores accurately predicted death from COVID-19. There were no differences in accuracy between the scores. An ANCOC score <-1 identified patients who will recover with a PPV and sensitivity of 100%, whereas a score >3 identified patients at high risk of death. The ANCOC score has very high diagnostic accuracy in predicting the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 diagnosed at ED. The ANCOC score has similar accuracy to the 4C score but is easier to calculate. If validated by external cohorts, this score could be an additional tool in the hands of ED physicians to identify COVID-19 patients at high risk of death.Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by MRE Press.

Evaluation of factors associated with trust in telemedicine in patients with inflammatory bowel disease during COVID-19 pandemic: a multicenter cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: Telemedicine (TM) has had a powerful impact in recent years, particularly on managing chronic diseases such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Knowing patients' expectations and concerns is essential to increase their confidence in this mode of medical care. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We interviewed a large cohort of IBD patients enrolled at two Italian tertiary referral centers to investigate their trust in TM. RESULTS: A total of 376 patients completed the survey and were included in the study: 293 (77.9%) considered TM valuable for managing their disease, and 307 (85%) wanted to have TM service at their center. However, only 99 patients (26.3%) believed that TM guarantees the same level of care as the in-person visit. Among the socio-demographic variables, those independently associated with trust in TM were the higher education qualification (p=0.02) and the level of competence in information and communication technologies (ICT) (p=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlighted the importance of equipping IBD patients with basic ICT skills to utilize TM services and increase their confidence in ICT with the help of caregivers. Additionally, to improve the perceived value of TM, it will be helpful to use additional tools such as telemonitoring of disease activity using patients' reported outcomes or remote measurement of fecal calprotectin.

Artificial intelligence and big data processing for the development of predictive models to support Covid-19 hospital patients

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused more than 6 million deaths. Higher values of the FIB-4 index have been shown to be associated with disease severity. Although vaccination has helped to improve clinical outcomes and overall mortality, it remains important to identify clinical parameters that can predict a likely worse prognosis. Artificial intelligence and big data processing were used to retrieve data from patients with Covid-19 admitted during the period March 2020-January 2022 at the Fondazione Policlinico Gemelli IRCCS. Patients and clinical characteristics of patients with available FIB 4 data derived from the Gemelli Generator Real World Data (G2 RWD) were used to develop predictive models of mortality during the 4 waves of the Covid-19 pandemic. A logistic regression model was applied to the training and test set. The performance of the model was assessed by means of the ROC curve. After the pre-processing steps, 1143 patients and 35 variables were included in the final dataset. The FIB-4 discretization algorithm identified a cut-off of 2.54. After fitting the model for multiple mortality regression analysis: FIB-4>= 2.53 (OR=4.53, [CI: 2.83 - 7.25]), wave 3 (OR=0.34, [CI: 0.15 - 0.75], wave 4 (OR=0.40 [CI: 0.24 - 0.66]) and LDH (OR=1.001, [CI: 1.000 - 1.002]) were considered. The machine learning approach identified a cut-off of 2.53 for FIB-4 above which the risk of death increases significantly. These data may be useful in the clinical management of patients with Covid-19, as they can be calculated from the blood test after hospital admission.

COMBINATION OF ADVANCED THERAPIES IN PATIENTS WITH COMPLEX INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE

Background and aim: Dual Targeted Therapy (DTT) is a novel therapeutic strategy proposed for the management of patients with complex inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Our aim was to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of this approach in a real-life setting Materials and methods: In this single centre retrospective cohort study, we collected data on IBD patients receiving DTT from 2017 to 2022. Baseline characteristics, clinical activity of intestinal and extraintestinal disease, C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, endoscopic assessment and adverse events (AEs) were recorded. Clinical remission, CRP normalization, endoscopic remission and occurrence of AEs were investigated at baseline and during follow up Results: Sixteen patients were identified;indications for DTT were: uncontrolled IBD (11 patients), uncontrolled extraintestinal manifestations (EIMs) (6 patients: 4 spondyloarthritis, 2 psoriatic disease). Patients received vedolizumab (VDZ, 14, 87.5%), ustekinumab (UST, 8, 50%), anti-TNFα (7, 43.8%), sekukinumab (2, 12.5%), tofacitinib (1, 6.3%). The most common combinations were: VDZ+UST (6 patients, 37.5%) and adalimumab+VDZ (3, 18.8%). At baseline, 15/16 (93.8%) and 4/6 (66.6%) patients had active intestinal and EI symptoms, respectively;14 (87.5%) patients had positive CRP and 5 (31.3%) were receiving oral steroids. Median follow-up duration on DTT was 15 months (IQR 11-22). Clinical intestinal remission was reported by 6/16 (37.5%) and 3/11 (27.3%) patients at 6 and 12 months, respectively. Clinical remission of EIMs was reported by 3/7 (42.9%) at 6 and 5/7 (71.4%) patients at 12 months, respectively. CRP normalization was observed in 3/16 (18.8%) and 6/11 (54.5%) patients at 6 and 12 months, respectively. 80% of patients on steroid therapy at baseline discontinued them within 6 months. Endoscopic assessments were available for 8 patients, with endoscopic remission in 2, endoscopic improvement in 3 and no improvement in 3. Four patients (25%) experienced an AE (1 COVID-19 and reactivation of perianal disease;1 mild pneumonitis and reactivation of perianal disease;1 drug-induced pneumonitis;1 arthralgia and COVID-19). Finally, 1 patient underwent colectomy due to uncontrolled disease. Three patients discontinued DTT: 2 because of treatment failure, 1 because of an AE (drug-induced pneumonitis) Conclusions: DTT can be considered a reasonably safe and effective treatment in complex IBD patients, either with uncontrolled intestinal inflammation or with concomitant EIMs, when other therapeutic options have failed

Hepatocellular liver injury in hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19: Presence of different risk factors at different time points.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence and clinical impact of increased liver function tests in patients affected by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is controversial. AIMS: This observational study evaluates the prevalence of transaminases elevation in hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19 and investigates the presence of factors associated with hepatocellular injury and with mortality. METHODS: Data of 292 adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the Ente Ospedaliero Cantonale (Switzerland) were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS: Transaminases were increased in about one-third of patients on hospital admission and two-thirds of patients during the hospital stay. On hospital admission, transaminases were more commonly elevated in younger patients, who also reported elevated C reactive protein and a higher degree of respiratory failure. Independent factors associated with abnormal transaminases during hospitalization were drugs, in particular paracetamol (OR=2.67; 95% CI=1.38-5.18; p = 0.004) and remdesivir (OR=5.16; 95% CI=1.10-24.26; p = 0.04). Mortality was independently associated to age (OR = 1.09; 95% CI=1.05-1.13; p<0.001), admission to intensive care unit (OR=5.22; 95% CI=2.28-11.90; p<0.001) and alkaline phosphatase peak (OR=1.01; 95% CI=1.00- 1.01; p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: On hospital admission, factors associated with liver damage were linked to demographic and clinical characteristics (age, inflammation and hypoxia) while, during hospitalization, drug treatment was related to development and progression of hepatocellular damage. Mortality was associated with alkaline phosphate peak value.

The educational role of IBD nurses in Italy in vaccinations: do not miss the moment for COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: The role of nurses has great educational-scientific potential in COVID-19 vaccination. The aim of this work is to clarify whether the educational role of IBD nurses in vaccination is perceived by IBD patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out, through a questionnaire, to evaluate how many IBD patients received health education about vaccinations from the dedicated nurses (IBD nurses). RESULTS: There were four hundred questionnaires, 310 patients (77.5%) answered all questions. The nurse does not appear to help educate patients on influenza vaccination (66.1%) or pneumococcal vaccination (81.6%). Disclosed patients have many doubts about the new COVID-19 vaccination (74.4%) and many seek information (74.8%) and think that the nurse can provide the necessary information (70%). CONCLUSIONS: IBD nurses do not seem very active in the vaccination education role, and they do not meet patients' expectations, which are conversely very high.

Gemelli decision tree Algorithm to Predict the need for home monitoring or hospitalization of confirmed and unconfirmed COVID-19 patients (GAP-Covid19): preliminary results from a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a deep learning-based decision tree for the primary care setting, to stratify adult patients with confirmed and unconfirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to predict the need for hospitalization or home monitoring. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study on data from patients admitted to a COVID hospital in Rome, Italy, between 5 March 2020 and 5 June 2020. A confirmed case was defined as a patient with a positive nasopharyngeal RT-PCR test result, while an unconfirmed case had negative results on repeated swabs. Patients' medical history and clinical, laboratory and radiological findings were collected, and the dataset was used to train a predictive model for COVID-19 severity. RESULTS: Data of 198 patients were included in the study. Twenty-eight (14.14%) had mild disease, 62 (31.31%) had moderate disease, 64 (32.32%) had severe disease, and 44 (22.22%) had critical disease. The G2 value assessed the contribution of each collected value to decision tree building. On this basis, SpO2 (%) with a cut point at 92 was chosen for the optimal first split. Therefore, the decision tree was built using values maximizing G2 and LogWorth. After the tree was built, the correspondence between inputs and outcomes was validated. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a machine learning-based tool that is easy to understand and apply. It provides good discrimination in stratifying confirmed and unconfirmed COVID-19 patients with different prognoses in every context. Our tool might allow general practitioners visiting patients at home to decide whether the patient needs to be hospitalized.

Web-mediated counseling to counteract the emotional impact of COVID-19 for women with interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: Interstitial Cystitis (IC) is a chronic and rare disease, more frequent in women. Symptoms of continuous pain can produce psychological disorders, such as anxiety and depression. The spread of COVID-19 pandemic added to distress experienced by patients with IC emotions, such as fear, sadness, boredom, frustration and anger. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A research on very recent literature outlines the necessity for patients facing the complexity of IC during the COVID-19 outbreak to prevent the temporary crisis, to broaden perspectives, to deal with confusion, to support in struggling with unpleasant and unexpected events. CONCLUSIONS: People affected by IC have a psychological vulnerability that needs tailored support interventions, particularly in the COVID era. A multidisciplinary approach offers a personalized treatment through a web-mediated counseling intervention for patients and their caregivers: a space for continuous discussion and reflection can favour a relationship-based process of change aimed at an improvement in quality of life.

Prevalence of liver injury and correlation with clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19: systematic review with meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Liver involvement of SARS-CoV-2 infection has been reported in several papers, but without homogeneous findings. We aimed to systematically review the prevalence of liver involvement in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at their hospital admission, and its correlation with disease severity and clinical outcomes in patients with or without pre-existing chronic liver disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Medline, PMC, clinical trial registries, and other Coronavirus family publications for studies reporting data on SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 and liver function tests (LFTs) alterations, as well as clinical course of patients with chronic liver disease or cirrhosis. Case reports, preprints, editorials, reviews were excluded. We also revised literature to describe the background of liver involvement during SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: 36 studies, including 20724 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, were included. The pooled prevalence of LFTs abnormalities at admission was 46.9% (AST 26.5%, ALT 22.8%, GGT 22.5%, ALP 5.7%, tBIL 8.0%). ALT, AST, tBIL were independent predictors of disease severity (ALT OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.17-2.03; AST OR 3.17, 95% CI 2.10-4.77; tBIL OR 2.32, 95% CI 1.18-4.58) and in-hospital mortality (ALT OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.12-1.96; AST OR 4.39, 95% CI 2.68-7.18; tBIL OR 7.75, 95% CI 2.28-26.40). Heterogeneity among studies was high. The few available data also reported that COVID-19 was associated with increased risk of liver decompensation and mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: LFTs alterations were reported in up to 47% of unselected patients with COVID-19 and were associated with severe disease or in-hospital mortality. In cirrhotic patients, COVID-19 was associated with high risk of liver decompensation or mortality.

Surgical emergencies during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic lockdown: what happened?

OBJECTIVE: The pandemic from SARS-CoV-2 is having a profound impact on daily life of a large part of world population. Italy was the first Western country to impose a general lockdown to its citizens. Implications of these measures on several aspects of public health remain unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of the lockdown on surgical emergencies volumes and care in a large, tertiary referral center. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Electronic medical records of all patients visited in our Emergency Department (ED) and admitted in a surgical ward from February 21st 2020 to May 3rd 2020 were collected, analyzed and compared with the same periods of 2019 and 2018 and a cross-sectional study was performed. RESULTS: Number of surgical admissions dropped significantly in 2020 with respect to the same periods of 2019 and 2018, by almost 50%. The percentage distribution of admissions in different surgical wards did not change over the three years. Time from triage to operating room significantly reduced in 2020 respect to 2019 and 2018 (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The lockdown in Italy due to SARS-CoV-2 pandemic arguably represents the largest social experiment in modern times. Data provided by our study provide useful information to health authorities and policymakers about the effects of activity restriction on surgical accesses and changing epidemiology due to an exceptional external event.

Role of troponin in COVID-19 pandemic: a review of literature.

Acute SARS-CoV-2 respiratory disease is an infectious respiratory disease caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2 belonging to the coronaviridae family. A pandemic is still present as of May 2020. In addition to causing pneumonia, SARS-CoV-2 may induce a direct damage to the heart, causing myocarditis, with significant impairment of cardiac contractility, and/or pericarditis. Elderly patients and those with cardiovascular risk factors, such as hypertension and diabetes mellitus, are at increased risk of heart complications from COVID-19. In this review, we focused on the correlation between COVID-19 infection and the high sensitivity troponin T and I, and their significance in the development of myocarditis. Data emerging from the studies so far conducted indicate that a high value of high-sensitivity troponin represents a negative prognostic indicator when associated with heart damage on an infectious-inflammatory basis (i.e. myopericarditis). We should identify a safe and clear diagnostic algorithm, possibly combining patient clinical history, troponin levels and cardiac ultrasound findings that could help us in the prediction of myopericarditis.

Mental health and counseling intervention for hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT) during the COVID-19 pandemic: perspectives from Italy.

OBJECTIVE: Hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT) is an inherited disorder of fibrovascular tissue, transmitted as an autosomal dominant trait. This rare disease can involve one or more organs and clinical manifestations interest several medical specialties. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A review of recent literature and our clinical experience shows that COVID-19 pandemic greatly influences the autonomy and psychic sphere of patients with HHT, causing them further distress. RESULTS: Often patients affected by HHT experience a sense of loneliness due to the rarity of this pathology and COVID-19 pandemic adds a burden for them and their caregivers who have to face emotional experiences that interfere with personal, social and working functioning. CONCLUSIONS: Multidisciplinary approach and web-mediated counseling intervention could offer a valid and personalized support for patients affected by HHT and their caregivers during quarantine due to COVID-19 pandemic.

The impact of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on Oncologic and Degenerative Spine Surgery Department activity: the experience of Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute under COVID-19 lockdown.

OBJECTIVE: Experience of Department of Oncologic and Degenerative Spine Surgery of Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic lockdown. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Retrospective observational study of surgically treated patients from 09th March 2020 to 04th May 2020. DATA COLLECTED: age, sex, type of disease, neurological status, days of hospitalization, complications and type of discharge. A comparison analysis with same period of the last year was performed in order to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 spreading on daily surgical activity. RESULTS: A total of 107 surgical procedures in 102 patients were performed from 09th March 2020 to 04th May 2020. Analysis showed a statistically significant difference in age, sex, ASIA class and type of treated disease compared to the same period of the last year (p=0.042, 0.006, 0.022 and 0.007, respectively). No statistically significant differences were observed in type of discharge, length of hospitalization and complications (p= 0.447, 0.261 and 0.127, respectively). 3 COVID-19 infections have been identified in hospitalized patients. 1 COVID-19 patient wad admitted from Emergency Department and was managed according to a dedicated path. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical activity was paradoxically increased during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic lockdown through the management of urgent and non-deferrable spinal disease with a low rate (3,9%) of COVID-19 infections.